What are the reasons and impacts of the sharp increase in H1B visa fees in the United States?
Ⅰ. Three core Reasons for the sharp increase in visa Fees
1. The dual drive of political commitment and labor protection
The visa fee has jumped from several thousand dollars to 100,000 dollars this time, which is essentially the fulfillment of the Trump administration's commitment to the "America First" election. The government claims that this move aims to screen out "highly skilled talents that cannot be replaced by Americans", and to force enterprises to give priority to hiring local labor through economic thresholds - Commerce Secretary Lutnik said directly that enterprises need to weigh whether "paying $100,000 for foreign employees is worth it". This logic precisely caters to the demands of its core supporters for tightened immigration policies, especially targeting Indian H1B holders who account for over 70% of the tech industry, implicitly responding to the issue of "foreign workers seizing local jobs".
2. Emergency fundraising measures in financial distress
The severe fiscal pressure in the United States is the key driver for the introduction of policies. Analysis indicates that the new regulations could enable enterprises to pay an additional approximately 14 billion US dollars (about 99.5 billion yuan) annually, and this fund would serve as an "emergency source of funds" to alleviate the federal debt. MBC, a South Korean TV station, sharply criticized that this move was essentially "turning visas into a business and using money to screen immigrants", exposing the tendency of the United States to instrumentalize immigration policies. It echoes the "Golden Card" policy (requiring a payment of 1 to 2 million US dollars to expedite visa approval), highlighting the feature of its immigration system tilting towards "high-value transactions".
3. An inevitable step in the spiral tightening of immigration policies
From the perspective of policy evolution, this price increase is a continuation of the Trump administration's restrictions on legal immigration. The previous radical measures against illegal immigrants have shown the feature of "repeated patches", while the H1B adjustment is now targeting the legal high-skilled immigrant group. In the political ecosystem of a "dumbbell-shaped society", the government opts to consolidate its die-hard supporters through tough policies, even if it causes industrial turmoil. This "pleasing die-hard fans" strategy is destined to lead to a major trend of "tightening step by step" in immigration policies.
Ⅱ. Six major chain Impacts sweeping across Multiple Fields
1. Technology Industry: The Stark Contrast between Giants and Start-ups
Large technology companies: Although giants like Microsoft and Amazon have to bear huge costs (Amazon has over 10,000 visas approved each year), they generally hold a welcoming attitude - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang believes that this move can "simplify the introduction of high-end talents", and the founder of Netflix claims that it can focus on "high-value positions". Such enterprises have the ability to absorb costs and can even reduce competition by raising the threshold.
Start-ups and outsourcing companies: A $100,000 fee can be regarded as a "fatal blow". The COO of an AI startup in San Francisco admitted that small businesses are unable to bear the cost and may face a "job vacuum" after the loss of international talent. India's $280 billion technology service industry is the first to be hit, with tens of thousands of outsourced jobs at risk of being transferred.
2. Talent Mobility: Short-term Chaos and Long-term Shift
Immediate chaos: Before the policy took effect, companies like Microsoft and Google urgently informed their overseas employees to "postpone travel and return to the US immediately". Some employees were in trouble due to difficulties in booking flights or being in international waters. A one-way ticket from India to New York has soared from 2,960 yuan to 6,400 yuan within two hours, reflecting the panic movement of talents.
Long-term shift: The appeal of international talent to the United States has significantly declined. Venture capitalist Das warned that this move would "weaken the United States' ability to attract the world's top talent", while Europe and Canada are taking the opportunity to open their doors - the founder of 20VC stated directly that Trump "has given Europe a golden opportunity to reverse the brain drain". The number of applications from international students in the United States may decline, shaking the foundation of the reserve of scientific and technological talents.
3. Us-india Relations: From the Foundation of Cooperation to a New Point of Friction
India, as the biggest beneficiary of H1B (accounting for over 70%), has become the direct target of policy impact. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India has warned that the new regulations will lead to "humanitarian consequences", and the tech industry has criticized the United States for using visas as a "weapon of economic coercion". This contradiction, coupled with issues such as tariff disputes, has cast a shadow over the already bumpy US-India relationship and may affect mutual trust between the two countries in areas such as technological cooperation and supply chain coordination.
4. Enterprise Operations: Cost Reconstruction and Strategic Adjustment
Enterprises are forced to launch multi-dimensional responses: one is to transfer R&D positions overseas, such as moving programming, design and other businesses to India and Europe, which instead goes against the original policy intention of "hiring Americans". The second is to turn to alternative solutions. The consultation volume for EB-5 investment immigration has soared - this approach can lock in a green card through investment, free from the employer binding and lottery risks of H-1B, and become a "safe haven" for high-net-worth talents. Third, optimize the human resource structure, reduce the recruitment of foreign personnel for junior positions, and intensify the competition for entry-level technical positions.
5. Innovation Ecosystem: Short-term Pains and long-term Risks
The innovative vitality of Silicon Valley is being challenged. Meng Shao, the CIO of the Swiss Sitz Group, stated straightforwardly, "From an innovation perspective, this is definitely unfavorable for the United States." The core competitiveness of the technology industry stems from the aggregation of global talents, but high entry barriers may lead to an "intellectual cut-off" : on the one hand, start-ups find it difficult to break through technological bottlenecks due to a shortage of talents; On the other hand, the rising cost of cross-border collaboration may slow down the research and development process in cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors.
6. Policy Implementation: Persistent turbulence caused by ambiguity
Although the White House clarified that the $100,000 is a "one-time fee and does not apply to renewals and existing holders", the policy details remain full of question marks. The Minister of Commerce once mistakenly called it an "annual fee", and immigration lawyers described the operation as "flying in the fog". This ambiguity has led enterprises to remain on the sidelines, forcing the human resources department to invest a great deal of energy in assessing risks, further intensifying internal operational friction.
Ⅲ. Deep Policy Logic: The essential Shift from "talent screening" to "capital Priority"
1. A fundamental overhaul of the immigration evaluation system
This price increase is not an isolated adjustment but forms a closed loop with the "Golden Card and Green Card" policy, marking a qualitative change in the US immigration system from "potential-oriented" to "capital-oriented". The traditional H1B emphasizes "skill scarcity", and even STEM graduates who have just entered the workplace can get opportunities based on their potential (such as Melania who stayed in the US through her modeling qualifications). Under the new regulations, whether it is a $100,000 visa fee or a $1 million "Gold card" donation, in essence, "financial strength" is set as the core screening criterion. Commerce Secretary Lutnik's statement, "We don't care about academic qualifications or language proficiency, as long as it can bring in funds," directly exposed the "profit-driven nature" of the policy - the United States is no longer willing to pay for "future talents," but instead is vying for "ready-made capital."
2. The "hidden scissors gap" strategy of industrial regulation
The seemingly fair "economic threshold" of policies actually creates a "screening scissors gap" for different industries. Data shows that among the H1B approved applicants in fiscal year 2024, computer-related occupations account for nearly two-thirds, and those in the professional technical service sector make up over 50%. These high-paying industries are more likely to bear the costs. Foreign talents in low-paying fields such as education and healthcare (such as research assistants and basic medical staff) are directly excluded. This orientation of "supporting the strong and suppressing the weak" is highly consistent with the Trump administration's goal of "revitalizing high-end manufacturing" - concentrating resources on high value-added industries through visa levers while squeezing the space for foreign workers in labor-intensive industries. Essentially, it is a "toolization of immigration" practice of industrial structure adjustment.
Conclusion
Significantly raising the threshold for H-1B visas is Trump's core election promise to his die-hard supporters, aiming to encourage American companies to give priority to American labor rather than hire foreign employees. American society has evolved from a traditional "spindle-shaped society" with fewer die-hard voters and more swing voters to a "dumbbell-shaped society" with more die-hard voters and fewer swing voters, which has prompted politicians to adopt a strategy of "only saying or doing what their die-hard supporters like". The Trump administration's move was aimed at pleasing the supporters of its "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) faction and consolidating its political base.
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