Can gold prices reach a peak of $5000 per ounce again in 2026?
As of January 20, 2026, spot gold was reported at $4706.703 per ounce, up 0.8% during the day. In addition, COMEX gold futures closed at $4704.9 per ounce, up 0.6% for the day. Entering 2026, spot gold prices have risen by 9%, while COMEX gold futures prices have risen by over 8%.
The trading screens of the New York Mercantile Exchange shimmer with dazzling golden light, as gold prices skyrocket from an average of $2000 per ounce in 2024 to over $4500 per ounce in 2025, and are now moving towards even more astonishing heights. The global central bank has become a net buyer of gold for three consecutive years. In 2024, gold surpassed US treasury bond bonds for the first time and became the world's second largest reserve asset, accounting for a historic 15% of international reserves.
01 Market Puzzle
Starting from early 2025, international gold prices experienced an unprecedented surge. Starting from around $2100 per ounce, it broke historical records and eventually stabilized in the high range above $4500.
Behind this round of upward trend is the convergence of multiple forces: frequent global risk events, deep concerns about the US dollar system, and strong support from structural buying.
The combined effect of these factors has boosted the safe haven nature and investment value of gold, resulting in an astonishing increase of more than double in the price of gold in the short term.
02 Intrinsic Motivation
The gold market in 2025 can be described as a concentrated manifestation of "favorable timing, location, and people". The global demand for safe haven will peak in 2025, mainly due to three factors.
The large-scale trade war launched by the United States has intensified global trade tensions, leading to the spread of market panic; The rare multiple shutdowns of the US government demonstrate political dysfunction; The ongoing geopolitical conflicts have never ceased, providing a perfect safe haven for gold.
In this context, the market's trust in the US dollar system is quietly changing. The United States has used its dollar hegemony to impose unilateral financial sanctions, government debt has reached historic highs, and loose monetary policies have led to currency overstocking, weakening the global reserve currency status of the dollar and prompting countries to seek alternative assets.
03 Structural Support
Unlike previous cycles of gold price increases, this round of uptrend is supported by solid structural buying. Global central banks, especially those in emerging market economies, are purchasing gold at an unprecedented pace.
In 2024, gold will officially replace the US treasury bond and become the second largest reserve asset in the world. This historic turn marks a profound change in the international monetary system.
At the same time, investment demand has also experienced explosive growth. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle starting from 2024 has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, which has increased the relative attractiveness of gold.
The inflow of funds into global gold exchange traded funds has reached a historic high, demonstrating the enthusiasm of institutional investors for gold.
04 Long Short Battle
Faced with the already historically high gold price, analysts have divergent views on the trend for 2026. The World Bank predicts that gold prices will experience a slight decline in 2026, but will still remain much higher than historical normal levels.
In this view, with the gradual easing of some uncertain factors, market sentiment may become rational, and the price foam of gold will shrink.
On the other hand, institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Bank of China International hold a more optimistic attitude. Goldman Sachs predicts a gold price of $4900 per ounce for December 2026, while Bank of China International expects the average gold price to reach $4800 per ounce in 2026.
These institutions believe that the underlying logic supporting gold prices remains intact, and any price correction could be seen as a buying opportunity.
05 Outlook for the Future
Metals Focus boldly predicts that the average price of gold will reach $5100 per ounce by 2026, and the price will show a steady upward trend. This bullish view is mainly based on two core judgments: global geopolitical and economic risks will not dissipate in the short term, and the trend of central bank gold purchases will continue to provide bottom support for the market.
From a technical analysis perspective, after breaking through the key psychological barrier of $4000 per ounce, the upward channel for gold prices has opened. Multiple technical indicators indicate that although the market may face short-term adjustments, the long-term trend is still upward.
In the New York gold futures trading hall, traders stared closely at the jumping numbers on the screen. A senior trader adjusted his trading instructions and said, "Now everyone is asking the same question - is what we see this time just a cyclical high point, or is it a precursor to the global monetary system's transformation
The latest data released by the London Bullion Market Association shows that the central bank's net purchases of gold have exceeded 100 tons for 18 consecutive months. Gold has never been placed on the negotiating table so frequently.
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