Blood Red Line and "Mosaic" Counterattack: An "Infinite War" Without Winners
When the tail flame of the Tomahawk cruise missile cuts through the early night sky of Tehran, and when multiple US military bases in the Middle East sound continuous air defense warnings, we have to admit that this storm, which has been brewing for months, has finally arrived in the most brutal way.
On February 28th, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale airstrike called "Operation Beheading" against Iran, in which Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and several military and political officials were killed. Subsequently, Iran's retaliation flooded in, with the "True Promise 4" operation announcing that it had attacked 27 US military bases and the Israeli military headquarters. As of now, the war has affected multiple countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait. The sailboat hotel in Dubai trembled in thick smoke, and the terminal building of Kuwait Airport was damaged in the explosion.
The intensity and nature of this conflict are alarming. This is no longer a border friction or proxy war, but an 'infinite war' that concerns the survival of the regime. However, behind the smoke of gunpowder, two core questions are worth pondering: Has the United States fallen into a new strategic quagmire? Can Iran's' Mosaic Defense 'Survive?
Washington's' Finding Reasons After Gunshots' and Internal Cracks
This military operation has been shrouded in a strong shadow of 'legitimacy' from the beginning. Although the White House claimed that the strike was based on intelligence that Iran planned to launch a "preemptive" attack on the US military, ironically, just one day later, US government officials had to admit during a closed door briefing to Congress that "there was no intelligence showing that Iran originally planned to launch a preemptive strike against the US military.
This approach of "firing first and then finding reasons" is difficult for even traditional political elites in the United States to accept. Democratic Senator Cain criticized this as a 'huge mistake' and an 'illegal war without an urgent threat'. More noteworthy is that the cracks even appeared in Trump's proud "MAGA" base plate. Trump's former political ally Greene publicly criticized the president's promise not to launch any more wars abroad as a "lie".
This internal rift reflects a profound reality: American society's tolerance for the Middle East conflict has reached its limit. The latest poll shows that only 27% of respondents support this military operation. For ordinary Americans, they are more concerned about the cost of living and inflation, rather than whether the flag has changed on the distant Iranian plateau.
What makes the Pentagon even more anxious is the actual ammunition inventory. After the attrition war of the Houthis in Yemen and the large-scale strike on Iraq, the US military's ammunition depot is sounding the alarm. The Wall Street Journal bluntly pointed out that if there is a potential conflict with China, the US military will need precision guided weapons currently being consumed in the Middle East within the first week. Griko, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center, warned that "the speed at which we use these weapons far exceeds the speed at which we replenish them." This is a typical symptom of excessive empire expansion: when you throw a heavy punch on every battlefield, you lose the ability to deliver a decisive fatal blow.
Tehran's' Mosaic Defense ': Decentralized Revenge
If the dilemma of the United States lies in the "long supply line", then Iran's challenge lies in "having its heart removed".
The death of Supreme Leader Khamenei is undoubtedly the heaviest blow suffered by the Iranian Islamic Revolution in 44 years. The lack of such spiritual leaders is an unbearable burden for any theocratic regime. However, surprisingly, Iran's chain of command has not collapsed.
The term mentioned by Iranian Foreign Minister Aragorzi on social media caught my attention - the 'mosaic defense' system. This is a decentralized and decentralized defense network. Under long-term sanctioning and military pressure, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and its subordinate armed forces have long been accustomed to operating independently without central directives. This is like a shattered mosaic tile, although the overall pattern is damaged, each fragment is still sharp.
We have seen that within 24 hours after the leader's death, Iran's retaliatory actions not only did not stop, but also showed a situation of multiple blooms and unprecedented scale. From missile strikes against the Israeli General Staff to raids on multiple US military bases in the Gulf, Iran has demonstrated astonishing resilience and readiness. This proves that even if the highest symbol falls, the complex network known as the "arc of resistance" is still operating at high speed.
But the cost of resilience is bloody. In the elementary school in Minabu city that was hit by a missile, the lives of 148 children came to an abrupt end. At the sports arena in Lameld, 20 female volleyball players who were training were forever left under the ruins. These images spread around the world through social media, arousing the grief and anger of Shia people, and injecting more genes of revenge into this war.
The collapse of international order and the ghost of 'chain reaction'
From a broader perspective, this US Israel operation has set a dangerous and unprecedented precedent - targeting a country's leader directly with precision strikes. As Iran stated in its letter to the United Nations, this seriously undermines the fundamental principles of national sovereignty and international relations.
UN Secretary General Guterres warned that this could trigger an "uncontrollable chain reaction". This is not an exaggeration. At present, the war has spread to more than six countries and regions, and organizations such as the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq have announced their full involvement. When Hezbollah in Lebanon, pro Iran armed groups in Syria, and even refugee groups in Afghanistan are all drawn into this vortex, the Middle East will no longer be a game on a chessboard, but a burning furnace.
For Israel, the Netanyahu government may have temporarily weakened its arch enemy with the help of the United States, but the 'protracted war with Iran' has just begun. Singaporean scholar Doshi pointed out that Iran is an institutionalized regime with procedures in place to respond to unexpected situations. Even though the new successor is not yet clear, the resilience of the Persians for thousands of years has determined that they will not easily succumb to bombing.
At a US military base on the outskirts of Kuwait, the bodies of three American soldiers are being transported back to their homeland, their lives ending in Iran's retaliation. On the streets of Tehran, hundreds of thousands of mourners shouted slogans of revenge, their sadness mixed with anger.
Trump said 'no ceasefire until goals are achieved', while Iran said 'when to ceasefire is up to Iran'. When both sides define 'victory' as the complete surrender of the other, the space for compromise is compressed to zero.
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